The market has been insane recently. I’ll post my returns so you all don’t think I’m full of **it. I’m up about 96% in the last 90 days in my fun money account. I think a lot of people either just getting in the market over the last few months or those who have been investing since they were shitting in their hands and wiping it on their faces have done well. Great. But it’s not real until you sell.
What Should You Do Now?
My fun money account isn’t so much fun anymore. I actually care about some of it. My top holdings a few days ago were CCIV, FUBO, SPCE, and MRNA with call options on all of them (not included in my returns yet). CCIV is a spac that has yet to invest in anything yet it’s up 150% (rumors on a buying a stake in Lucid Motors). FUBO, while I love that stock, returned 5x in two months and SPCE is up 30% today and 3x over the last year. Literally nothing has happened besides stocks with heavy short interest are being bought because people hope another GME short-squeeze will happen. It won’t, but if everyone thinks something will happen, it does.
The market might continue to be insanely irrational for quite some time. Don’t bet on it going down. But now is a good time to see how much of your portfolio is riding the hype wave versus how much is in solid long-term, value-creating investments. When I started this blog, I was comfortable with the money I was risking on volatile, hype-driven stocks. Now, I’m not. So I sold what I wanted to keep. I’m going to move it into safer investments like low fee Vanguard mutual funds. I might actually diversify across multiple asset classes. Maybe even some of these stocks generate cash flows and pay dividends. I’ll reset back to what I started with in May and start over.
All I’m saying is don’t forget to sell and keep what you win. The market is a casino right now and if you’re playing the casino, you don’t have control over when you win and lose. Yes, stocks generally go up. But uncommitted SPACs, EV companies with no revenue and unproven technology, space companies mired by delays and stronger competitors, and near-bankrupt defunct companies with negative cash flow will not always go up. I guarantee it. I’ve been a proponent of gambling on these stocks recently. But the gains are real. It’s not fun money. It’s real money. And if you sell, you get to keep it. You can buy shit, save for retirement, contribute to your kids college fund, or, my favorite, models and bottles baby.
So I’m taking about 60% off the table. I’m not sure what I’m investing in with the rest of it, but that’s why I wake up and scan the Internet for degenerates upvoting poorly spell checked posts about companies no one has heard of.